Basic concepts, subject and methods of statistics. Methods of statistics Subject and methods of statistics
Term "statistics" (status) in two basic meanings
statistical methodology.
On second stage
And finally, on third stage
Main tasks and principles of organization of state statistics of the Russian Federation.
The main accounting and statistical center in the Russian Federation is State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia), created in 1994. The tasks of its structures include a systematic analysis of the socio-economic situation of the Russian Federation, reflection of the dynamic processes of transition to the market, which are based on objective quantitative characteristics of the ongoing transformations.
State statistics system is under the jurisdiction of the Government of the Russian Federation, has a structure that includes the federal, republican, regional, regional, district, city and district levels.
The main objectives of statistics of the Russian Federation are:
1) statistical observation of the development of the economy and society using various types and methods of data collection;
2) control, verification of the content of various information received by statistical authorities;
3) a set of reports from bottom to top;
4) scientific processing, generalization, analysis of all observation materials, incl. selective, specially organized;
5) a comprehensive study of the economy, analysis of its state, development of trends, patterns on the scale of regions, countries, various forms of ownership, management, sectors and branches of the economy;
6) preparation and publication of statistical materials (statistical collections, yearbooks, press releases, reports) on the development of the country, regions, industries, etc.;
7) improvement of accounting, reporting, system of indicators and methods of analysis.
3. Essence and organizational forms of observation
The essence and organizational forms of statistical observation.
Statistical observation- this is a preliminary stage of statistical research, which is a systematic, scientifically organized accounting (collection) of primary statistical data on mass socio-economic phenomena and processes.
Not every data collection can be called statistical observation. The observation will be statistical, firstly, when it is accompanied by registration of the studied facts in the relevant accounting documents for their further generalization, secondly - when is widespread. This ensures coverage of a significant number of cases of manifestation of a particular process, necessary and sufficient to obtain data that relate not only to individual units of the population, but also to the entire population as a whole.
Statistical observation must meet a number of essential requirements:
a) be carried out continuously and systematically;
b) accounting of mass data should be such that not only the completeness of the data is ensured, but also their constant change is taken into account;
c) the data must be as reliable and accurate as possible;
d) the phenomena under study must have not only scientific, but also practical value.
In statistics, 2 organizational forms of observation are used:
1. Reporting - an official document, which is signed by persons responsible for the provision and reliability of the collected information, and is approved by state statistics bodies. In addition to annual reporting, there may be daily, weekly, biweekly, monthly and quarterly reporting.
2. Specially organized statistical observation – covers those phenomena that are not sufficiently reflected in primary accounting and reporting, as well as to supplement and clarify data within households. accounting. This may include census. In practice, a census of population, material resources, green spaces, unfinished construction projects, equipment, etc. is carried out.
Census- observation, repeated at regular intervals, the task of which is not only to determine the size and composition of the population under study, but also to analyze quantitative changes in the period between two surveys. Most famous population census.
4. Statistical observation plan
Statistical observation plan.
The statistical observation plan consists of two parts: programmatic, methodological and organizational.
Program and methodological part of the plan – This is the definition of a goal, the establishment of an object, units of observation, elements of a population, and the drawing up of an observation program.
Purpose of observation determined by specific statistical needs. According to the purpose, the object and unit of observation are determined.
Observation object – a set of phenomena being studied. It is necessary to clearly define its boundaries and essential features. For example, a census of production equipment provides a clear classification of equipment (manufacturing, energy and other types).
Unit of observation is a source of information: enterprise, organization, family. The bearers of characteristics that are subject to registration are elements of the population. They are the ones who are directly examined.
Thus, in a census of production equipment, the unit is the enterprise, and the element of the population is the unit of equipment. The population element and the unit of observation may be the same, as in the case of a population census.
Surveillance program contains a list of characteristics subject to registration. The program questions are contained in statistical forms in the form of a questionnaire, questionnaire or form. The instructions containing explanations and instructions for the observation program help to answer the questions correctly.
Organizational part of the plan determines the place, time and surveillance bodies, the schedule for training and instructing personnel, and the material and technical basis for surveillance.
Observation location They consider the point where the characteristics of population units are directly recorded in the forms.
Observation time divided into objective and subjective. Objective name the time to which the observation data relates. It is a specific moment or period of time. For example, the production of types of products is taken into account for a certain period, and the availability of housing stock - as of a certain date. The point in time at which the characteristics are recorded is called critical. The critical moment of the 1989 census was 12 o'clock at night from 11 to 12 January. The period during which the signs of the observed object are recorded is called subjective time. If the deadline for submitting a monthly report is February 5, then the subjective time (the time of compiling the report) will be from February 1 to February 5, and the objective time will be one month.
5. Observation errors
Observation errors.
Accuracy and reliability of data is the most important requirement of statistics.
Accuracy is considered a measure of compliance of observation data with their actual value, reliability – a measure of their objective reflection of the essence of phenomena and processes.
Observation errors– discrepancies between observation data and actual values of indicators.
A distinction is made between registration and representativeness errors.
Registration errors are those that arise as a result of incorrect establishment of facts or their incorrect recording. They can be random or systematic.
Random errors arise due to random reasons and distort data in one direction or another. Their influence on generalizing indicators is balanced.
Systematic errors lead to significant deviations in the overall observation results. They can be intentional and unintentional (for example, an error associated with the tendency for older people to round up their age is unintentional; intentional errors are often found when compiling enterprise reports).
Representativeness errors occur only when not continuous observation in cases where the selected part of the population does not fully reflect the composition of the population as a whole.
Observation errors are identified by checking and monitoring the reliability of the data. First of all, they carry out external control of observation forms. Check that they are filled out correctly and completely. Then carry out logical And arithmetic control.
Logical control usually consists of comparing answers to related questions, which makes it possible to identify inconsistencies in answers. Arithmetic control consists of checking all generalizing indicators and coordinating those indicators that are derived from one another.
6. Absolute values. Essence and units of measurement
Absolute values.
Primary statistical information is expressed primarily in the form absolute indicators, which are the quantitative basis of all forms of accounting.
Absolute indicators characterize the total number of units of a population or its parts, the sizes (volumes, levels) of the phenomena and processes being studied, and express time characteristics. Absolute indicators can only be named numbers, where the unit of measurement is expressed in specific numbers.
Depending on the essence of the phenomenon under study and the tasks set, the units of measurement can be natural (physical measures of mass, length, volume), conditionally natural (for example, dairy products with different cream base content, soap with different fatty acid content, etc.), cost (monetary value) and labor (labor costs, labor intensity of technological operations in man-days, man-hours).
The entire set of absolute values includes both individual indicators (characterize the values of individual units of the population), and total indicators (characterize the total value of several units of the population or the total value of an essential characteristic for one or another part of the population).
Absolute indicators should also be divided into momentary And interval .
Momentary absolute indicators characterize the fact of the presence of a phenomenon or process, its size (volume) at a certain date.
Interval absolute indicators characterize the total volume of a phenomenon for a given period of time (for example, production output for a quarter or a year, etc.), while allowing for subsequent summation.
7. Relative values. Essence and types
Relative values.
Relative values- these are abstract statistical quantities that express the quantitative relationship of two quantities. Relative values measured V coefficients, percentages, ppm, complex units.
Types of relative quantities:
1)relative magnitudes of dynamics- this is the ratio of the actual value of the indicator in the reporting period (U 1) to its actual value in the base, previous period (U 0):
ATS= (U 1 / U 0)x100%.
Relative dynamics characterize changes in a phenomenon over time. In statistics, these indicators are called growth rates;
2) relative levels of plan implementation-
this is the ratio of the actual value of the indicator (U 1) to its planned value (U plan) for the same period:
OVVP= (U 1 /U plan)x 100%.
This relative value shows the degree of implementation of the plan as a percentage;
3) relative amount of planned task fulfillment- this is the ratio of the planned value of the indicator (P plan) to the actually achieved value in the previous period, i.e. in the base (at 0):
OVPP = (U plan /U 0)x 100%.
Shows by what percentage the planned target is higher (lower) than actually achieved in the base period. This value is called the planned growth rate;
4) relative size of structure- shows the composition of the phenomenon, expressed in the form of a fraction or specific gravity. Share (d) is the ratio of a part to the whole, i.e. the ratio of the constituent parts of a population to its total volume. Specific gravity is a share expressed as a percentage. Relative values of structure are used in statistics to characterize structural changes;
5) relative amount of coordination- shows the relationship between the parts of the whole, i.e. the ratio of all parts in succession to one of them, taken as the base. The smallest value is taken as the base. The relative magnitude of coordination shows how many units of a given part of the whole fall on its other part, taken as the basis of comparison;
6) relative intensity value- this is the ratio of two opposite quantities related to each other. Characterizes the degree of development of a phenomenon in a certain environment;
7) relative comparison value- this is the ratio of quantities of the same name that characterize different objects of study for the same period. Shows how many times the numerator is greater (less) than the denominator.
8. The essence of average values and their types
Average size is a statistical indicator that gives a generalized characteristic of a varying characteristic of homogeneous units of a population.
Essence of average lies in the fact that it cancels out random deviations in the values of a characteristic and takes into account changes caused by the main factor.
Statistical processing by the method of average values consists of replacing the individual values of a varying characteristic with some balanced average value.
Types of averages
Average values are divided into two large classes: power means and structural means
Power averages:
§ Arithmetic
§ Harmonic
§ Geometric
§ Quadratic
Structural averages:
§ Median
The choice of the form of the average depends on the initial basis for calculating the average and on the available economic information for its calculation.
The initial basis for calculation and the guideline for the correct choice of the form of the average value are economic relationships that express the meaning of average values and the relationship between indicators.
9. Power averages
Power averages
Power averages include:
· arithmetic;
· harmonic;
· geometric;
· quadratic;
cubic
Power averages, depending on the presentation of the source data, are calculated in two forms simple and balanced.
The simple average is calculated according to ungrouped data and its general formula is as follows:
, (7.5)
where is the average value, is the variant of the characteristic being averaged, k is the exponent of the average, n is the number of variants (or sample size).
ides of power averages
| Type of power average | Exponent, K | Calculation formula | |
| Simple | Weighted | ||
| Harmonic | -1 | = | =  |
| Geometric | = | =  |
|
| Arithmetic | = | = | |
| Quadratic | = | =  |
|
| Cubic | = | =  |
According to the majority property of power averages (i.e., as the exponent k increases, the corresponding average value also increases), the following inequalities are satisfied:
10. Structural averages
In addition to power averages in statistics, for the relative characterization of the value of a varying characteristic and the internal structure of distribution series, structural averages are used, which are mainly represented by fashion and median.
Fashion- This is the most common variant of the series. Fashion is used, for example, in determining the size of clothes and shoes that are most in demand among customers. The mode for a discrete series is the one with the highest frequency. When calculating the mode for an interval variation series, you must first determine the modal interval (based on the maximum frequency), and then the value of the modal value of the attribute using the formula:
§ - meaning of fashion
§ - lower limit of the modal interval
§ - interval value
§ - modal interval frequency
§ - frequency of the interval preceding the modal
§ - frequency of the interval following the modal
Median - this is the value of the attribute that underlies the ranked series and divides this series into two equal parts.
To determine the median in a discrete series if frequencies are available, first calculate the half-sum of frequencies , and then determine which value of the variant falls on it. (If the sorted series contains an odd number of features, then the median number is calculated using the formula:
M e = (n (number of features in total) + 1)/2,
in the case of an even number of features, the median will be equal to the average of the two features in the middle of the row).
When calculating the median for interval variation series First, determine the median interval within which the median is located, and then determine the value of the median using the formula:
§ - the required median
§ - lower limit of the interval that contains the median
§ - interval value
§ - sum of frequencies or number of series terms
§ - the sum of the accumulated frequencies of the intervals preceding the median
§ - frequency of the median interval
11. The essence of variation and its types
Types of indexes.
According to the degree of coverage of the elements of the phenomenon, indices are divided into individual and general (summary). Individual indices (i) are indices that characterize the change in only one element of the population. The general (composite) index (I) characterizes the change in the entire set of elements of a complex phenomenon. If indices cover only part of the phenomenon, then they are called group indices. Depending on the method of study, general indices can be constructed either as aggregate indices or as average weighted indices (averages of individual ones). The method of constructing aggregate indices is that with the help of so-called co-measurers it is possible to express the total values of a complex aggregate in the reporting and base periods, and then compare the first with the second. Average indices: arithmetic and harmonic. Indices of average values. In statistics, indices of variable and fixed composition are of great importance, which are used in analyzing the dynamics of average indicators. The index of variable composition is the ratio of two average levels. The fixed composition index is the average of the individual indexes. It is calculated as the ratio of two standardized averages, where the influence of changes in the structural factor is eliminated, therefore this index is also called the constant composition index. Depending on the nature and content of the indexed values, indices of quantitative indicators and indices of qualitative indicators are distinguished.
19. Individual and consolidated indices
Indices of average values.
The average index is an index calculated as the average of the individual indices. The arithmetic average index will be identical to the aggregate index if the weights of the individual indices are the terms of the denominator of the aggregate index. average harmonic index is used if the denominator in the index relation is unknown. An index of variable composition is an index that expresses the ratio of the average levels of the phenomenon being studied, relating to different periods of time. 
The index of variable composition reflects a change not only in the indexed value, but also in the structure of the population. Index of constant composition - calculated with weights fixed at the level of one period, and showing changes only in the indexed value.
The index of structural changes is understood as an index that characterizes the impact of changes only in the structure of the phenomenon being studied on the dynamics of the average level of this phenomenon.
In-s per=ind.post.*ind.str.
21. Practical application of the index method
The index method is the main method for comprehensive statistical research of prices. Price index is a relative indicator expressed in coefficients or percentages, characterizing the change in prices in time or space /9, p.554/. Comparison of prices of one product is carried out using an individual (single-product) price index:
(18) where p i1 is the price of a product in the current period, p i0 is the price of a product in the base period /4, p. 272/. Individual indices characterize the dynamics of the price of a specific product /9, p. 555/.
(19)where q i0 is the sales volume in the base period, q i1 is the sales volume in the current period. Current time period (Paasche formula)
Edgeworth-Marshall formula:
22. Types of relationships
The index method is the main method for comprehensive statistical research of prices.
Price index is a relative indicator expressed in coefficients or percentages, characterizing price changes in time or space /9, p.554/.
Comparison of prices for one product is carried out using an individual (single-product) price index:
where p i1 is the price of the product in the current period,
p i0 is the price of the product in the base period /4, p.272/.
Individual indices characterize the dynamics of the price of a specific product /9, p.555/.
The main form of a price index for a set of heterogeneous goods is an aggregate index. It makes no sense to add up the prices of various goods (for example, confectionery and computers). The non-summability of population elements is overcome by weighing each price by the number of goods sold. The sum of the products of the prices of goods and their quantity constitutes the turnover of the totality of goods. To directly identify price changes, it is necessary to fix quantity indicators at one of the levels.
Base period of time (Laspeyres formula)
where q i0 is the sales volume in the base period,
q i1 - sales volume in the current period.
Current time period (Paasche formula)
The clarity of interpretation, economic meaning and convenience of practical calculation of the Laspeyres formula have made it the most popular in the world for calculating the consumer price index, which shows how many times consumer spending would change in the current period compared to the base period if the level of consumption remained the same when prices changed . This calculation is correct in the absence of significant quantitative and qualitative changes in the structure of consumption (over time and across territories, if the index is calculated for several regions) /7, p.304/.
The study of the dynamics of retail prices (for example, to obtain a deflator that allows you to calculate the cost indicators of the reporting period in comparable prices) should be as close as possible to the totality of goods produced in the reporting period. The result of the calculation using the Paasche formula shows how many times the amount of actual expenses of the population for the purchase of goods is greater (less than) the amount of money that the population would have to pay for the same goods if prices remained at the level of the base period.
Statistical analysis has proven that in the long-term aspect, the Paasche formula underestimates the real change in prices due to social negative correlation (the relative weight of a product falls if its price increases).
It has been proven that the best linear index lies between the indices calculated using the Laspeyres and Paasche formulas. Foreign statisticians tried to find a compromise formula.
Edgeworth-Marshall formula:
The formula captures shifts in the structure of purchases, but is tied to the conditional structure of trade turnover, which is not typical for any real period, and has no direct economic meaning. Its calculation encounters obstacles in collecting materials /7, p.305/.
Many economists consider the “ideal” Fisher index to be the most successful compromise.
It evaluates not only the set of goods of the base period at prices of the current one, but also the set of goods of the current period at prices of the base period. Used in case of difficulties with the choice of scales or significant changes in the structure of the scales.
23. Relationship between qualitative characteristics
The concept of statistics. Subject and method of statistics.
Term "statistics" comes from the Latin word "status" (status), which means “state and state of things.” Currently the term "statistics" is used in two basic meanings. Firstly, as a special branch of practical activity for the collection, processing and analysis of mass quantitative data on the socio-economic state of the country, its individual industries, individual regions, individual enterprises. Secondly, as a science that develops theoretical principles and methods used in statistical practice. It should be borne in mind that statistics are based only on those conclusions that arise from the analysis of properly collected and processed digital data.
The subject of statistics research is the area of mass socio-economic phenomena of society. Statistics studies the quantitative side of these phenomena in inextricable connection with their qualitative side under specific conditions of place and time. She also includes in the scope of her research technical and natural factors that influence changes in the quantitative aspects of mass phenomena.
The purpose of statistical research is to reveal the essence and patterns of mass phenomena and processes.
The system of methods and techniques by which statistics studies mass phenomena forms statistical methodology. Its specificity lies in the fact that all the main methodological techniques are used as tasks are completed three successive stages (phases) statistical research:
I. statistical observation;
II. summaries and groupings of primary statistical data;
III. scientific processing and analysis of statistical information.
On second stage The collected information is summarized and distributed using the method of statistical groupings in a certain way.
And finally, on third stage Using the method of generalizing indicators, statistical information is analyzed.
2.Basic concepts of statistics and statistical methodology
Statistics is one of the oldest branches of knowledge, which arose on the basis of economic accounting.
The term "statistics" comes from the Latin word "status", which came into use in Germany in the mid-18th century. Statistics meant a set of information about the state and its attractions.
Statistics began to be taught as a science in 1749 by the German scientist Gottfried Achenwal.
The development of statistics proceeded in two directions:
1) descriptive school originated in Germany and was associated with the description of the sights of the state: territory, population, well-being of the state and citizens, etc. - without analyzing patterns and relationships between phenomena. The founder of the descriptive school was the German scientist Hermann Contring (1606 - 1681).
2) “political arithmetic” originated in England and was focused on identifying, based on a large number of observations, various patterns and relationships between the phenomena being studied. The founder of the school of this direction was William Petty (1623-1687).
The term "statistics" used in several meanings:a set of academic disciplines; branch of practice(“statistical accounting”); a set of digital information, characterizing the state of mass phenomena and processes of social life; statistical methods(including methods of mathematical statistics) used to study socio-economic phenomena and processes.
Statistics as a science is an integral system of scientific disciplines: the theory of statistics, economic statistics and its branches, socio-demographic statistics and its branches.
Theory of statistics is the science of the most general principles and methods of statistical research of socio-economic phenomena. It develops the conceptual apparatus and system of categories of statistical science, considers methods of collecting, summarizing, generalizing and analyzing statistical data, i.e., the general methodology for statistical research of mass social processes.
The theory of statistics is the methodological basis of all industry statistics.
Economic statistics- studies phenomena and processes in the field of economics, structure, proportions, relationships between industries and “elements of social reproduction.”
Statistics is a science that studies the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena in the inextricable relationship of their qualitative side, as well as the quantitative expression of the patterns of development of processes in specific conditions of place and time.
Subject of statistics - the quantitative side of mass socio-economic phenomena and processes, which is studied inextricably with their qualitative side.
Objectives of Statistics- improvement of the statistical information base based on the development of a system of statistical indicators and the introduction of state statistical standards in order to provide government bodies and other structures with statistical data;
Theoretical basis statistics are provisions socio-economic theory, who consider the laws of development of socio-economic phenomena, clarify their nature and significance in the life of society. Based on knowledge of the provisions of economic theory, statistics analyzes specific forms of manifestation of categories, estimates the size of phenomena, and develops adequate methods for their study and analysis.
The study of statistics is based on a system of categories and concepts that reflect the most essential properties, characteristics, and relationships of phenomena and processes.
Statistics method
Statistical methods:
- mass observation method - collection of primary data on population units;
Summary and grouping consists of classification, generalization of the obtained primary data;
Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon being studied using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.
In accordance with Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of March 9, 2004 No. 314, the State Committee of the Russian Federation on Statistics (Goskomstat of Russia) was transformed into the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). The area of activity of Rosstat is determined by the Regulations on the Federal State Statistics Service.
Rosstat functions:
Adoption of regulatory legal acts in the field of state statistical activities;
Providing government bodies with official statistical information on the socio-demographic, economic, environmental state of the country;
Exercising control in the field of state statistical activities.
The bodies of Rosstat are a three-level system with territorial bodies and subordinate organizations of the Federal Service. Rosstat manages the work of 75 territorial bodies of state statistics, which are in charge of statistical activities in the relevant territories of republics, territories, regions, autonomous okrugs and autonomous regions.
In addition, the Rosstat system includes:
GMC (Main Interregional Center for Processing and Dissemination of Statistical Information of the Federal State Statistics Service),
Scientific Research and Design and Technological Institute of Statistical Information System;
Research Institute for Problems of Socio-Economic Statistics, educational institutions (colleges and technical schools, training centers).
The collection and processing of statistical information can also be carried out by ministries and departments: the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, etc. (so-called departmental statistics).
All state statistics bodies ensure the provision of official statistical information to government bodies of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Until 2003, the All-Union Classifier of Sectors of the National Economy (OKONKH) was used to describe the structure of the Russian economy. Instead, OKONH of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia developed the All-Russian Classifier of Types of Economic Activities (OKVED).
Based on OKVED codes, the types of activities of economic entities are identified in the process of their state registration and statistical accounting.
The study of statistical indicators allows us to give a general description of the volume and composition of the phenomenon, to identify and study statistical patterns. Such patterns are discovered during mass observation due to the action of the law of large numbers.
The law of large numbers is an objective law according to which the simultaneous action of a large number of random factors leads to a result almost independently of each case.
Those. patterns appear only in the mass of phenomena when data are generalized over a sufficiently large number of units.
The subject of statistics is studied using special techniques, methods and methods aimed at the quantitative study of mass social and social and economic phenomena and processes.
The use of specific methods in statistics is predetermined by the assigned tasks and depends on the initial information.
In the process of development of the science of statistics, its methods did not remain unchanged, but were enriched with new, increasingly complex techniques.
Statistics method(or statistical methodology) is a set of techniques, rules and principles for the statistical study of socio-economic phenomena, i.e. collecting information, processing it, calculating indicators and analyzing (evaluating) the received data.
Statistical methods:
The method of mass observations is the collection of primary data on population units.
Summary and grouping consists of classification and generalization of the obtained primary data.
Methods for analyzing generalizing indicators make it possible to characterize the phenomenon being studied using statistical values: absolute, relative and average in order to establish relationships and patterns of development of processes.
In the process of statistical research, statistical methods are usually applied in a comprehensive manner.
In statistics, as in any other science, mathematics is a means, a research tool.
The difference between mathematics and statistics is that statistics obtains quantitative characteristics of phenomena in their inextricable connection with the qualitative side. Mathematics studies the quantitative side of phenomena without regard to quality.
In higher mathematics, there is a section of mathematical statistics, which deals with the development of mathematical methods, systematization of processing and research of cost data for scientific and practical conclusions.
INTRODUCTION: SUBJECT AND METHOD OF STATISTICS
1. Subject of statistics
2. Objectives of statistics
3. Statistics methods
4. Basics of organizing statistics
1. Subject of statistics
The word "statistics" is widely used in practice. But this word has different meanings.
Statistics is a branch of knowledge, i.e. scientific discipline (statistical science) and, accordingly, academic discipline in educational institutions;
Statistics is a branch of practical activity aimed at collecting, processing, analyzing and publishing mass data about the phenomena and processes of social life;
Statistics is also called a set of digital information that characterizes any phenomenon of social life or a set of them. For example, marriage statistics, statistics of sown areas, etc.;
Statistics in mathematical statistics is a term used for functions of observational results.
The word “statistics” comes from the word “status”, which means state, state of affairs. It was used in the meaning of “political state”, hence the Italian word “stato” - state and “statista” - expert of the state. The word “statistics” came into use in scientific literature in the 18th century and was initially understood in the sense of “state science.”
Statistics is a science that studies the qualitative content of mass social phenomena from the quantitative side.
The above definition indicates 3 main features of the subject of statistics:
1) statistics studies public phenomena;
2) studies them with quantitative sides;
3) she is studying massive social phenomena.
Statistics studies social phenomena, which means that it is a social science. This is explained by the peculiarities of social phenomena, the laws of their development and methods of cognition. In order to study the laws of social development, it is necessary to collect and summarize numerous facts of social life.
The phenomena of social life, along with the qualitative side, can be characterized from the quantitative side: size, degree of distribution, relationships between individual parts, changes in these characteristics over time.
The definition of the subject of statistics states that statistics characterize mass phenomena, i.e. those that are not isolated, but consist of a collection of facts, events, units. Statistics reveal patterns of change in these characteristics, which manifest themselves in a massive generalization of facts. Therefore, statistics deals with concepts such as statistical population, variation, varying characteristics, statistical patterns, law of large numbers. Let's consider the content of these categories.
Statistical population- this is a mass of individual units of the same type, united by a single qualitative basis, but differing from each other in a number of characteristics.
For example, the population will be the population of a country, which consists of individual people who differ in gender, age and many other characteristics. At the same time, this totality is united in the sense that it consists of the inhabitants of a given country.
Sign- a distinctive feature, property, quality inherent in a unit of a population.
Qualitative sign (attributive)– meaning is expressed in the form of concepts, names. For example, nationality, gender, profession.
Quantitative trait– values have a quantitative expression. Quantitative signs are:
a) discrete– take certain, fixed values, for example, the number of pieces of equipment;
b) continuous– take on values that differ as little as possible, for example, weight, cost of products.
Factor characteristics- These are independent characteristics that influence other related characteristics.
Effective signs– these are dependent characteristics that change under the influence of factor characteristics.
Variation – these are differences in the values of a particular characteristic among individual units included in a given set. It arises as a result of the fact that individual values of a characteristic are formed under the combined influence of various factors (conditions), which are combined differently in each individual case
Varying signs are those that take on different values (qualitative or quantitative) for individual units of the population.
The value of this characteristic for individual units of the population is called option.
By obtaining general characteristics of mass social phenomena, statistics seeks to identify with their help certain patterns. It can be:
Patterns of development (dynamics) of phenomena. Thus, statistics show that the world's population is growing from year to year.
Patterns of changes in the structure of phenomena. Thus, from statistical materials we see that in Russia the share of the urban population in the total population is growing.
Patterns of distribution of units within a population. Such patterns can be found in the age distribution of the population.
Patterns of coherent changes in various varying characteristics in the aggregate. Thus, by distributing workers of a certain profession and qualification according to length of service, one can notice a natural change in labor productivity.
In general statistical indicators calculated on the basis of mass observation, the effects generated by individual causes that are random for the entire mass of units are smoothed out, and the effects caused by causes common to all units of the population are clearly manifested. This is where the action comes in law of large numbers.
In science term statistics introduced by the German scientist Gottfried Achenwall in 1746, proposing to replace the course title “ Statecraft", taught at universities in Germany, on " Statistics", thereby marking the beginning of the development of statistics as a science and academic discipline. Despite this, statistical records were kept much earlier: population censuses were carried out in Ancient China, the military potential of states was compared, the property of citizens in Ancient Rome was recorded, etc.
At the origins of statistical science there were 2 schools: German descriptive And English school of political arithmetic.
Representatives of the descriptive school (Herman Konring, Gottfried Achenwall, August Ludwig Schlenzer) considered their task to describe the sights of the state: territory, population, climate, political structure, religion, trade, etc. – without analyzing patterns and connections between phenomena.
Representatives of the school of political arithmetic (William Petty, John Graunt, Edmund Halley) considered their main task to be the identification, based on a large number of observations, of various patterns and relationships in the phenomena being studied.
Each school developed in its own way, using its own methods in research, but they had a common subject of study - the state, society and, in particular, mass phenomena and processes occurring in it. Statistics was formed as a science as a result of the synthesis of state science and political arithmetic, and it took more from the latter, since statistics even now is called upon to identify, first of all, various kinds of patterns in the phenomena under study.
However, representatives of these two schools did not reach the theoretical generalization of the practice of accounting and statistical work, before creating theory of statistics. This problem was solved later, in the 19th century, by the Belgian scientist Adolphe Quetelet, who defined the subject of statistics and revealed the essence of its methods. Under the influence of Quetelet’s ideas, a third direction of statistical science arose - mathematical-statistical, which was developed in the works of such scientists as: the British Francis Galton, Francis Edgeworth, Karl Pearson, Some J. Yule, William Gosset, Ronald Fisher, Maurice J. Kendal, the Italian Corrado Gini, the Russians - Pafnuty Lvovich Chebyshev, Andrei Andreevich Markov , Alexander Mikhailovich Lyapunov, Alexander Ivanovich and Alexander Alexandrovich Chuprov, etc.
Currently the term statistics used in 4 meanings:
- the science, studying the quantitative side of mass phenomena and processes in inextricable connection with their qualitative content - an academic subject in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions;
- set of digital information characterizing the state of mass phenomena and processes of social life; statistical data presented in the reports of enterprises, organizations, sectors of the economy, as well as published in collections, reference books, periodicals and on the Internet, which are the result of statistical work;
- branch of practice(“statistical accounting”) for the collection, processing, analysis and publication of mass digital data on a wide variety of phenomena and processes of social life;
- a certain parameter of a series of random variables, obtained by a certain algorithm from the results of observations, for example, statistical criteria (critical statistics) used when testing various hypotheses (presumptive statements) regarding the nature or values of individual indicators of the data under study, features of their distribution, etc.
Like any other science, statistics has its own subject and research method. Statistics studies the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in inextricable connection with their qualitative side or content, and also studies the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time. Such a study is based on a system of categories (concepts) reflecting the most general and essential properties, features, connections and relationships of objects and phenomena of the objective world.
- A statistical aggregate is a set of socio-economic objects or phenomena of social life, united by a qualitative basis, but differing from each other in individual characteristics, i.e. homogeneous in one respect, but heterogeneous in another. These are, for example, a set of households, families, enterprises, firms, etc.
- Unit of the population– the primary element of the statistical population, which is the carrier of characteristics and the basis of the account maintained during the survey.
- Sign of a population unit– properties of a population unit that differ in the methods of their measurement and other features
- Statistical indicator– a concept that reflects quantitative characteristics (dimensions) or relationships between characteristics of social phenomena. Statistical indicators can be divided into primary (volume) - characterize either the total number of units of the population (volume of the population) or the sum of the values of any attribute (volume of the attribute) and are expressed in absolute values, and secondary (calculated) - specified per unit of the primary indicator and expressed in relative terms and average values. Statistical indicators can be planned, reporting and forecast.
- System of statistical indicators– a set of statistical indicators reflecting the relationships that objectively exist between phenomena. It covers all aspects of social life at both the macro and micro levels. As the living conditions of society change, the systems of statistical indicators also change, and the methodology for their calculation is improved.
The set of techniques using which statistics examines its subject is statistics method. There are 3 groups of statistical methods (3 stages of statistical research):
- Statistical observation- scientifically organized collection of information, consisting in the registration of certain facts, characteristics related to each unit of the population being studied;
- Summary and Grouping- processing of collected primary data, including their grouping, generalization and presentation in tables;
- Statistical analysis- based on the summary data, various general indicators are calculated in the form of average and relative values, certain patterns in distributions, dynamics of indicators, etc. are identified.
Thus, any completed statistical study takes place in 3 stages, between which, of course, there may be time breaks.
Topic 1. Subject and method of statistical science
1. Subject and method of statistics
2.Basic concepts of statistics theory
Subject and method of statistics
The word “statistics” is of Latin origin (from status - state). In the Middle Ages it meant the political state of the state. This term was introduced into science in the 18th century. German scientist Gottfried Achenwal. Actually, as a science, statistics arose only in the 17th century, but statistical accounting existed already in ancient times. Thus, it is known that even 5 thousand years BC. Population censuses were carried out in China, the military potential of different countries was compared, records were kept of the property of citizens in Ancient Rome, then of the population, household property, and lands in the Middle Ages.
At the origins of statistical science there were two schools - the German descriptive and the English school of political arithmetic.
Representatives of the descriptive school believed that the task of statistics is to describe the attractions of the state: territory, population, climate, religion, farming, etc. - only in verbal form, without numbers and without dynamics, i.e. without reflecting the peculiarities of the development of states in certain periods, but only at the time of observation. Prominent representatives of the descriptive school were G. Conring (1606–1661), G. Achenval (1719–1772), A. Büsching (1724–1793), and others.
Political arithmetics aimed to study social phenomena using numerical characteristics - measures of weight and number. This was a fundamentally new stage in the development of statistical science in comparison with the school of government, since statistics moved from describing phenomena and processes to their measurement and research, to the development of probable hypotheses for future development. Political arithmeticians saw the main purpose of statistics in the study of mass social phenomena; they realized the need to take into account the requirements of the law of large numbers in statistical research, since a pattern can only appear with a sufficiently large volume of the analyzed population. The most prominent representative and founder of this trend was V. Petty (1623–1687). History has shown that the last word in statistical science belonged to the school of political arithmeticians.
In the 19th century The teaching of the Belgian statistician A. Quetelet, the founder of the doctrine of average values, was developed. The mathematical direction in statistics developed in the works of the Englishmen F. Galton (1822–1911) and K. Pearson (1857–1936), W. Gosset (1876–1937), better known under the pseudonym Student, R. Fisher ( 1890–1962) etc.
The progress of statistical methodology was facilitated by the works of Russian statisticians - A.A. Chuprov (1874–1926), V.S. Nemchinov (1894–1964), S.G. Strumilina (1877–1974) and others.
The development of statistical science and the expansion of the scope of practical statistical work have led to a change in the content of the very concept of “statistics”. Currently, this term is used in three meanings:
1) statistics is understood as a branch of practical activity that aims to collect, process, analyze and publish mass data on a wide variety of phenomena in social life (in this sense, “statistics” acts as a synonym for the phrase “statistical accounting”);
2) statistics refers to digital material that serves to characterize any area of social phenomena or the territorial distribution of some indicator;
3) statistics is a branch of knowledge, a special scientific discipline and, accordingly, an academic subject in higher and secondary specialized educational institutions.
Like any science, statistics has its own subject of study; statistics studies the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in inextricable connection with their qualitative side, studies the quantitative expression of the laws of social development in specific conditions of place and time.
Statistics studies its subject using certain categories, i.e. concepts that reflect the most general and essential properties, characteristics, connections and relationships of objects and phenomena of the objective world.
Basic concepts of statistics theory
1. A statistical population is a set of units of the phenomenon being studied, united by a single qualitative basis, a common connection, but differing from each other in individual characteristics. These are, for example, a set of households, a set of families, a set of enterprises, firms, associations, etc.
A set is called homogeneous if one or more of the essential characteristics of its objects being studied are common to all units.
A set that includes phenomena of different types is considered heterogeneous. A population may be homogeneous in one respect and heterogeneous in another. In each individual case, the homogeneity of the population is established by conducting a qualitative analysis, clarifying the content of the social phenomenon being studied.
2. A characteristic is a qualitative feature of a unit of a population. According to the nature of the display of the properties of the units of the studied population, the signs are divided into two main groups:
characteristics that have a direct quantitative expression, for example, age, work experience, average earnings, etc. They can be discrete or continuous;
characteristics that do not have direct quantitative expression. In this case, individual units of the population differ in their content (for example, professions - the nature of work: teacher, carpenter, seamstress-machine operator, etc.). Such features are usually called attributive (in philosophy, “attribute” is an integral property of an object). In the case when there are variants of a characteristic that are opposite in meaning, they speak of an alternative characteristic (yes, no). For example, products may be suitable or defective (not suitable); for representatives of certain age groups there is a probability of surviving or not surviving to the next age group; each person may be married or not, etc.
A feature of statistical research is that it studies only varying characteristics, i.e. characteristics that take on different meanings (for attributive, alternative characteristics) or have different quantitative levels in individual units of the population.
3. A statistical indicator is a quantitative assessment of the properties of the phenomenon being studied. Statistical indicators can be divided into two main types: accounting and evaluation indicators (sizes, volumes, levels of the phenomenon being studied) and analytical indicators (relative and average values, indicators of variation, etc.).
Statistics studies its subject using its own specific method. The general basis for the development and application of statistical methodology is the dialectical method of cognition, according to which social phenomena and processes are considered in development, mutual connection and causality. The method of statistics is a whole set of techniques using which statistics studies its subject. It includes three groups of methods proper: the method of mass observations, the method of groupings, and the method of generalizing indicators.
Statistical observation consists of collecting primary statistical material, scientifically organized registration of all significant facts related to the object under consideration. This is the first stage of any statistical research.
The grouping method makes it possible to systematize and classify all facts collected as a result of mass statistical observation. This is the second stage of statistical research.
The method of generalizing indicators allows you to characterize the phenomena and processes being studied using statistical values - absolute, relative and average. At this stage of statistical research, the relationships and scales of phenomena are identified, the patterns of their development are determined, and forecast estimates are given.
